Prospect of an Indo-Sino War

 Why is China creating so many nuisances these days?

What is the likelihood of an all-out Indo-Sino war in the near future?

The whole world has closely observed the recent Indo-Sino conflict at Galwan valley in Ladakh where at least 20 Indian soldiers martyred and an undisclosed number of Chinese soldiers were killed. The incident received worldwide attention as it was a historic event for Indo-Sino relations and a check-post to scrutinize enigmatic Chinese intentions for the post-COVID world where there is a greater possibility for the augmentation of the anti-China wave all over the globe.

Recently, there were media reports of growing Chinese military presence in the Indian Ocean too. China has already got Nepal under its foothold and induced anti-India sentiments there. It has also evoked the issue of Kalapani land border dispute. Recently, Nepal has claimed a piece of land in Bihar too and attacked civilians of that region. From an all-time ally, Nepal has turned into a hostile enemy under Chinese influence.

Now the question arises about the Chinese motive behind all this.

One possibility contemplated by several media channels and politicians is of an all-out Indo-Sino war.

Is China planning for an all-out war with India?

Nobody knows.

But what we know is that the worst military mistake that a country can ever make is to start a war when it can’t afford the one.

Here the bigger question lies: “Can China afford an all-out war with India?”

The simple answer is ‘no’.

Neither India nor the Chinese can afford a war at this time. India’s constraints are clearly visible. The country is already in a grave health crisis due to the coronavirus pandemic and the economy is plummeting with businesses and industries shutting down and an unemployment at 8.5% (as of 21st June). The Country is not in a situation to go into a war and that is why it resisted a retaliatory action too.

But why can’t Chinese afford a war against India?

Chinese impediments are various and many and in fact more than that of India’s.

Firstly, Military deployment is a big challenge for China right now. It is already engaged on too many fronts.

What a country needs during a war is to quickly round up its forces at the front-line. But China is fighting fires on several fronts. Its ground forces, navy, and warplanes are all engaged at different locations.

Chinese fighter jets are busy intruding into Taiwan’s air space. Its ships are at the South-China Sea trying to fortify its claims over the waters there. In the South-China Sea region alone, Beijing is currently engaged with five countries namely Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, and Malaysia. The People’s Liberation Army (Chinese army) is creating artificial islands there and carrying out naval exercises. Not only this, but Beijing is also provoking the Japanese in the East China Sea. There were reports of Chinese ships illegitimately entering into the Japanese waters. This makes up a total of six countries China is currently engaging with, in the waters alone.

Then there is Hong Kong and its pro-democracy movements. Beijing can’t afford an uprising in Hong Kong along with the war against India.

Secondly, China is already at war at Home. It is already struggling with its domestic problems.

China is still fighting to legitimize its claims on Tibet. It is advocating for the reunification of outer-Mongolia and its troops are busy in the persecution of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang Province. Moreover, it is also fighting the second wave of coronavirus in Beijing.

Can the People’s Liberation Army compromise on any of these fronts to engage in a full-blown battle with India?

Hypothetically, even if they do, then Beijing’s financial constraint comes out.

Can the Chinese government fund a war at this time?

The Chinese GDP stood at $ 2.91 trillion in the first quarter of 2020, plunging at 6.9% year on year. Also plunging is China’s reputation as an industrial hub as companies are adamant to relocate their manufacturing centers out of China. There’s a slip in the country’s manufacturing as well as domestic demand. The Wuhan Virus has hammered the Chinese economy. Imports have declined by 8.5% in the first quarter of 2020, unemployment is at the rise and people are struggling to meet their end needs.

The worst thing China can think of at this time is a ‘military war with India’ when it is already in the midst of a trade war with the United States and Australia. According to the reports, the trade war with the United States alone had costed China $ 35 billion in the first half of 2019 and now it has made another rival- ‘Australia’ just because it demanded an investigation on the emergence of the Wuhan virus at the World Health Assembly.

Fighting India would mean losing out on Indian markets too. Already there is a widespread protest in India after Galwan Valley clash to boycott Chinese goods. Chinese exports to India in fiscal year 2019 were $ 74.72 billion ($ 63.4 billion in FY20). There’s a lot of money at stake for the China.

Another reason why China can’t afford a war against India is that the global heat is against it (due to coronavirus) and it has no certain and major ally for a war. Debt-ridden Pakistan and its new stooge Nepal do not really count and would not suffice the circumstances.

What about the autocratic Russia?

On one hand, it is a major defense partner of India, sharing good ties with it and on the other hand, there’s an old adage- ‘communist - communist are brothers.’ So, Russia’s role in the Indo-Sino conflict becomes quite indeterminate.  (It will be discussed in detail in later articles).

But India has the support of the other global powers like USA, Japan, France, UK and Israel for sure, both diplomatically as well as militarily. Recently, the United States has shifted its troops from Europe and other parts of the world to Indo-Pacific region to counter the Chinese threat to India and Southeast Asia. Israel and Japan have always proclaimed their open support to India in the Indo-Sino conflict.

If china fires a shot at Ladakh it will be ambushed from all fronts. No matter what will the results of this war be but assuredly the Chinese economy will shrink, people will suffer more and it will be diplomatically isolated from all over the globe. Chinese leadership may not be able to subsist after such a woe.

Definitely, China won’t risk all this and trap itself into a quagmire.

But then the question arises if not an all-out war then what was the Chinese motive behind such hostility and threat to India?

Again, nobody really knows.

But one strong possibility contemplated is that this was an attempt by the Chinese government to assuage domestic pressure aroused due to Hong Kong protests and subdue international outrage and criticism on the emergence of coronavirus as well as the imposition of Security law in Hong Kong. The main aim behind this aggression was to divert the global attention towards Galwan valley clash and evade a probe on the emergence of Wuhan Virus by depicting itself into a war-like situation. Also, this was an effort to exhibit China’s military strength worldwide and avoid international isolation in the post-COVID world.

Basically, China is acting like a bird fluttering in captivity by posing empty-threats to its neighbors.

Author: Gautam Sodani