The Indian e-Divide

Batch of Pandemic and the Digital Divide in India

Author: Gautam Sodani

(7 Minute Read)

The COVID-19 pandemic has thrown everyone's life into disarray and caused irreparable damage to many businesses all across the globe. Besides the toll on life and living, the year 2020 was ravaged by output and employment losses unprecedented in history, globally as well as in India. India’s GDP fell by 7.3% in fiscal year 2021 and the World Bank estimates global output to fall by 5.2% during the same period.

While the severity of the effect varies from sector to sector, there are few sectors that have been affected the hardest. In India, some industries, particularly those that require a high level of contact, have been severely harmed, while others, such as agriculture and allied activities, information technology, highway infrastructure, railway freight, and domestic trade, have shown remarkable resilience in the face of the pandemic. Aviation, travel and tourism, and hospitality were among the most affected industries in India. The hospitality industry’s expected loss stood at ₹90000 crores for the fiscal year 2021, while aviation and travel and tourism sector’s expected losses stood at ₹47000 crore and ₹5000 crore, respectively, during the same period. These sectors may not be able to regain their momentum until things return to normalcy.

However, even if things begin to normalize, one industry may not be able to recoup from its losses for an extended length of time, resulting in a crippling long-term impact on the country's labor productivity and job market.

We're talking about the impact on the country's 'education sector', which has received the least attention in the face of the pandemic thus far.

The true extent of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on education is yet to be measured but all indications show that it will be severe, since many children are unable to attend school and many are facing the constraints of online learning.

In March 2020, schools and colleges in almost all parts of the world were forced to close their doors due to the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic. The academic calendar has been severely disrupted with actual classroom learning being replaced by online learning. Despite this rapid transition to e-learning, millions of children, especially in Africa and South Asia, have been left without adequate access to education.

The situation in India turned out to be grimmer. As many schools and educational institutions moved to online platforms for continuation of learning, the ‘digital divide’ remained a challenge for the country.

 According to data from the 2017 National Sample Survey (NSS) report, merely 6% of rural households and 25% of urban households had access to a computer. Lack of internet facilities was also a cause of concern with only 17% of rural households and 42% of urban households having access to it. Definitely, data-enabled cell phones have increased access in the last four years, but many of the most disadvantaged people are still suffering, especially in rural areas. According to surveys conducted by the National Council of Educational Research and Training (NCERT), the Azim Premji Foundation, ASER, and Oxfam, between 27% to 60% of students were unable to participate in online classes due to a variety of factors, including a lack of devices, shared devices, and the inability to purchase data packs.

Accompanied with the mismanagement of public schools in India, the above-mentioned issues render online learning an unfeasible and non-viable choice for the major chunk of the country’s population. With such challenges of distance learning, many children may drop out leaving little scope for the return unless affirmative and immediate actions are taken. Most likely the increased economic insecurity, lack of social protection and reduced household income will push such children from poorer households to contribute to the family income, leaving their education aside.

Even those who will continue their education once schools reopen may struggle to catch-up to their counterparts who have access to online learning. The two-year gap in schooling will make the learning more difficult and less efficient in the coming years for such people (Figure – 1*), which will eventually make them incompetent for the formal sector job. Despite continuing their education, they may not be able to meet the minimum threshold required for employment in the formal sector (or it may take them considerably large amount of time), and will thus end up working in an informal sector only.

Figure – 1: Shift of Productivity Curve for those unable to access online learning

Note: It is rational to assume the original productivity curve (pre-pandemic) to be S-shaped, exhibiting proportionality to the theory of ‘learning curve’.

Does this imply that those who have the access to online learning are at an advantageous position in the future labor market?

May be yes, but not necessarily.

Even for those who can readily afford online learning facilities, the move was not as seamless as it appears to be. Online education has entailed a delayed learning process, lack of personalized attention, poor student-teacher relationships, and a lack of motivation among students. Apart from this, many people usually do not possess a healthy learning environment at home – a peaceful study area is a luxury for many. For instance, in 2017-19, 25% of Indians were living in a single-room houses. How can a child learn if two to four adults occupy a single room?

In India, online education has come at the cost of "marginal productivity loss," which would eventually be revealed with time, while leaving a catastrophic impact on the country's human capital development.

However, it is to note that not all the factors that may contribute to low level of human development are created by the pandemic; most of them were pre-existing and have been exposed or amplified by it. The quick summary of Indian education after independence would suggest that the education system for the most part is driven by sorting rather than human development and this sudden shift to online mode has rendered this system even less effective in terms of skill development and human capital formation.

So, people with access to online learning may possess an edge over those without any access to it, but this ‘batch of pandemic’ may not possess the required skill sets and efficiency up to their qualification and may remain less competent against their senior batches (Figure – 2*). The hardest impact of this will be seen on those students who graduated or will graduate from high-school between 2019 and 2023 – thus calling them the ‘batch of pandemic’. 

Figure – 2: Shift of Productivity Curve for those having access to online learning 

Some students will find ways to fill this ‘productivity gap’ quicker but most of the people from this batch may end up struggling – especially the batch of 2021 (after the cancellation of CBSE HSC examination). The most unexpected impact of online learning will be seen in the formal sector labor market, where this batch may find it difficult to get jobs that fits their skills and qualification. They may find it simpler to enter the formal sector by putting in little extra efforts and time, but individuals who graduated prior to 2019 may get an advantage in terms of productivity, expertise, and experience over this cohort.

In the future years, India's human capital formation may take a significant hit, and the problem of brain drain may also aggravate.

Businesses all across the country may find their ways to recover quickly in the upcoming years, recouping all their losses, but the pandemic's impact on India's education sector may continue to have long-term devastating effects on the country's prospective human capital resource.

Only time will reveal the true picture.

 

*The graphs are based on certain assumptions and facts gleaned from various surveys, research articles, and comments from educators.